Market Analysis

# Market Analysis Prompt

Create a market analysis that sizes the opportunity, surveys its growth
drivers, and grounds later Discover/Frame work in market-report evidence —
before any sub-approach, sourcing, or positioning decision has been made.

## Reference Anchors

Use this local resource summary as grounding:

- `docs/resources/sba-market-research-competitive-analysis.md` grounds
  market, competitor, pricing, and demand evidence expectations.

## Storage Location

Store at: `docs/helix/00-discover/market-analysis.md`

## Purpose

Answers: **Is this opportunity real, and how big?** Market Analysis is not
Competitive Analysis or Business Case. It owns market sizing, growth
trajectory, and the sub-approaches under consideration. Competitive Analysis
owns competitive pressure, alternatives, and defensible positioning once a
direction is chosen. Business Case owns investment logic (cost, ROI,
go/no-go).

## Key Principles

- **Name the sub-approaches** — if the opportunity spans distinct supply
  chains, cost structures, or buyer segments, size and discuss each rather
  than collapsing them into one pitch.
- **Cite every figure** — every market-size or growth-rate number traces to
  an entry in Sources; do not present modeled or recalled figures as
  sourced fact.
- **Separate facts from assumptions** — mark confidence explicitly when a
  claim is a stated market-report driver versus an inferred implication.
- **Defer decisions, don't make them** — sub-approach commitment, sourcing
  relationships, and positioning anchors belong in Frame; record them here
  as Open Questions, not as conclusions.
- **Stay evidence-first** — Strategic Implications should read as "what the
  sizing and competitive-density data imply," not as an independent pitch.

## Quality Checklist

- [ ] Every sub-approach the opportunity could take is named, not collapsed
- [ ] Every market-sizing figure cites a source
- [ ] Key Drivers separate stated market-report findings from inferred trends
- [ ] Strategic Implications are grounded in the sizing/competitive-density
      data above them, not asserted independently
- [ ] At least one Open Question is explicitly deferred to Frame
- [ ] Sources section lists every citation used in the body

---
ddx:
  id: market-analysis
---

# Market Analysis: [Opportunity Name]

**Activity:** Discover
**Status:** Draft
**Date:** [YYYY-MM-DD]

## Concept

[The candidate opportunity, evaluated across its distinct sub-approaches when
the opportunity spans more than one viable shape — do not collapse them into
one pitch if the supply chains, cost structures, or buyer segments differ.]

1. **[Sub-approach 1]** ([short description])
2. **[Sub-approach 2]** ([short description])
3. **[Positioning or packaging layer]** (if applicable, layered on either
   sub-approach above)

## Market Size & Growth

- [Segment]: **$[X] ([year]) → $[Y] ([future year])**, ~[Z]% CAGR.
- [Narrower/adjacent segment]: **~$[X] in [year]**.
- [Most relevant slice]: [growth rate] CAGR [year range], reaching an
  estimated **$[X] by [year]**.

**Read:** [One or two sentences interpreting what the sizing data implies for
this opportunity — which sub-approach is higher-growth vs. higher-volume,
whether the category is funded/real vs. niche/speculative.]

## Competitive Landscape

### [Sub-approach 1 or segment]
- **[Competitor archetype, e.g. vertically integrated brands]**: [names].
- **[Other archetype, e.g. ingredient/platform suppliers]**: [names].
- **Incumbents moving in**: [named incumbents and their observed activity, if any].
- [Count or density signal, e.g. "N distinct brands active as of [year]"].
- **Pricing observed**: [named price points with units, if available].

### [Sub-approach 2 or segment]
- [Named competitors with a one-line differentiator each].

### [Positioning/packaging layer, if applicable]
- [Buyer-behavior signal, e.g. "% of buyers actively avoid X"].

## Key Drivers

- [Named consumer/market driver, with confidence — market-report driver vs.
  niche preference].
- [Category-wide growth signal vs. the specific opportunity].
- [Buyer-behavior driver relevant to entry strategy, e.g. trial behavior,
  switching cost].

## Strategic Implications

- **[Sub-approach 1]**: [room to enter, level of crowding, what differentiation
  needs to look like beyond the generic category claim].
- **[Sub-approach 2]**: [structural advantage/disadvantage, e.g. easier to
  differentiate regionally but harder to scale].
- **[Positioning/packaging layer]**: [whether it is table-stakes or a real
  differentiator].
- **Pricing signal**: [what the observed price premium or lack of one implies
  for go-to-market — premium/DTC vs. price-sensitive staple].

## Open Questions

**For Frame:**

- [Sub-approach or segment commitment the venture still needs to decide, and why].
- [Whether a defensible sourcing/supply relationship exists, or the entrant is
  a pure brand-layer player].
- [Positioning anchor beyond the baseline category claim].

## Sources

- [Source title](URL)
- [Source title](URL)